Story · Mission control · No 02

The short version, in eight cards

parallaxlens.com/s/2026-04-24-kessler-cascade
Parallax · Story 1 / 8
Parallax medallion, space desk
Mission control · No 02

Space junk now grows even if nobody launches

Last year one company's satellites dodged 300,000 times. The junk you never see has never once been cleaned up.

24 Apr 2026 · 4 min read · 12 sources
Swipe up Swipe
Mission control · No 02 2 / 8
WHAT CHANGED

It has already started

What most people think

Space junk is a problem for later. Stop launching and the sky slowly clears itself.

What the data shows

0new launches

It has already started

Source · ESA Space Environment Report 2025

Mission control · No 02 3 / 8
THE RECORD

Six break-ups wrote today's orbit

2007
Fengyun-1C · China's test
2009
Two satellites collide
2019
Mission Shakti · India's test
2021
Cosmos 1408 · Russia's test
2024
An old satellite breaks up
A rocket stage fragments

Even with nothing new going up, the debris count still rises. Here is where most of it came from.

Source · ESA Space Debris Office, with US Space Command and SpaceNews

Mission control · No 02 4 / 8
WHERE IT BROKE

Altitude decides how long the junk stays

km
865 Fengyun-1C · 2007

Why did one test's cloud vanish while another's is still up there? The answer is the height it happened at.

Source · NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, LeoLabs and ESA

Mission control · No 02 5 / 8
THE RENT

Dodging is now a full-time job

Starlink course changes in 2025

300,000+

A move is ordered when the odds of a hit pass 3-in-10-million.

  • at least 34 every hour, all year long 300,000 divided across the year's hours

  • three lakh course changes, one fleet, one year the same figure, said in lakh

That chain has a price, and it is already being paid. Start with one company's share of it.

Source · FCC orbital-debris reports and Jonathan's Space Report

Mission control · No 02 6 / 8
SIX READINGS

What sharing the orbit costs now

Starlink satellites in orbit
10,074
pieces of debris ever removed
0
of all near-miss risk in 2025
~10 %
space-station debris dodges since 1998
39

Three lakh dodges is one company's bill. Here is what the rest of the sky already costs.

Source · FCC, NASA, Astroscale and Jonathan's Space Report

Mission control · No 02 7 / 8
THE SHARED BILL

You pay to dodge. Nobody pays to leave.

What you already pay

Everyone up there pays to dodge everyone else's junk.

Every avoidance burn costs fuel, which means less working life. The space station has moved 39 times since 1998. One broadband fleet moved more than 300,000 times in 2025 alone.

What nobody owes

Nobody is bound to stop making the junk.

In December 2022 the United Nations asked states to stop destructive anti-satellite tests. The vote was 155 for and 9 against. China and Russia were two of those 9. India abstained, neither for nor against, and the resolution binds nobody.

Everyone up there pays to dodge the junk, because every dodge burns fuel. Nothing has ever been removed from orbit, and only one operator has ever been fined. Both sides here are true at once.

Source · UN General Assembly resolution record, with Secure World Foundation

Mission control · No 02 8 / 8
The whole issue

That's the short version.

8 sections
12 sources, linked
4 minutes
Still in the issue
  • Ground rules
  • Annual count
Read the whole issue
Share