Parallax · earth desk · — 05
You have lived through the eleven hottest years ever recorded. The last of them, 2025, was supposed to be a cool one.
2025 was meant to be the cool year. The Pacific was in its La Niña phase, the phase that pulls the world's temperature down. It still finished second-hottest ever recorded.
What most people think
El Niño heats the world for a year, La Niña cools it back, and the two cancel out. Like a swing.
What the data shows
1.44°C
2025 was a La Niña year. It still finished second-warmest ever, hotter than 2016, which was an El Niño record.
The cooling did happen. It just started from a much warmer ocean.
The cool year won
Fifty-seven years, one stripe a year. The last dozen stripes are hotter than every stripe before them, and that dozen includes the cool La Niña years.
Fifty-seven years
Of every 100 units of extra heat the planet traps, 91 go into the sea. About one part in a hundred stays in the air you feel. The sea does not hand it back.
The ocean's share of Earth's extra heat
91%
The air you feel holds one part in a hundred. The sea holds the rest.
91 units of every 100 the planet traps, held in the sea Land holds five parts, ice three, the air one.
In 2025 alone the sea gained 39 years of human energy use The ocean's record heat gain that year.
Where the heat goes
Two cool years, three years apart: the first ranked fifth or sixth warmest, the second tied second-warmest ever. The cooling happened both times, but the floor moved anyway.
The two cool years
Forecasters give this El Niño 61% odds and see the Pacific peaking in September. The world's record follows about three months later, which puts it in 2027.
What comes next
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