Parallax · earth desk · — 05

Now even the cool years break records

You have lived through the eleven hottest years ever recorded. The last of them, 2025, was supposed to be a cool one.

2025 was meant to be the cool year. The Pacific was in its La Niña phase, the phase that pulls the world's temperature down. It still finished second-hottest ever recorded.

A La Niña year, 2025 still tied second-warmest ever at 1.44°C above the 1850–1900 average.

What most people think

El Niño heats the world for a year, La Niña cools it back, and the two cancel out. Like a swing.

What the data shows

1.44°C

2025 was a La Niña year. It still finished second-warmest ever, hotter than 2016, which was an El Niño record.

The cooling did happen. It just started from a much warmer ocean.

The cool year won

Fifty-seven years, one stripe a year. The last dozen stripes are hotter than every stripe before them, and that dozen includes the cool La Niña years.

Every year since 2015 sits above every year before it, the cool years included. +1.55 °C peak
The old record: 2016's El Niño peak.
A La Niña year, and still above the 2016 peak.
1970 1998 2026
Cooler Warmer Baseline · 1850–1900 pre-industrial average

Fifty-seven years

Of every 100 units of extra heat the planet traps, 91 go into the sea. About one part in a hundred stays in the air you feel. The sea does not hand it back.

More than 91% of the excess heat goes into the ocean.

The ocean's share of Earth's extra heat

91%

The air you feel holds one part in a hundred. The sea holds the rest.

  • 91 units of every 100 the planet traps, held in the sea Land holds five parts, ice three, the air one.

  • In 2025 alone the sea gained 39 years of human energy use The ocean's record heat gain that year.

Where the heat goes

Two cool years, three years apart: the first ranked fifth or sixth warmest, the second tied second-warmest ever. The cooling happened both times, but the floor moved anyway.

2022, a cool year, landed at 1.1–1.3°C. 2025, also cool, landed at 1.44°C.
1.1–1.3 °C
2022 · La Niña year
Fifth or sixth warmest then. The earlier cool floor.
1.55 °C
2024 · El Niño peak
First year above 1.5°C in most datasets. Land at 2.3°C.
1.44 °C
2025 · La Niña year
Tied 2nd warmest ever. With the Pacific swing removed from every year, the warmest.
−0.05 °C
How much La Niña cooled 2025
The cooling that barely registered.

The two cool years

Forecasters give this El Niño 61% odds and see the Pacific peaking in September. The world's record follows about three months later, which puts it in 2027.

El Niño has a 61% chance by mid-2026. The year has a 62% chance of ranking second-warmest.
61 %
Probability El Niño develops
By May–July 2026 (NOAA, April 9).
+2.2 °C
How warm the central Pacific gets · September
Above the Pacific's own normal, not 1850–1900. From 637 runs. Past +2.0 is 'super'.
62 %
2026 = 2nd warmest year
Best estimate 1.47°C above pre-industrial.
~30 %
2026 exceeds 1.5°C
The line first crossed in 2024.

What comes next

Read the full issue: where the extra heat goes, and why the next cool year starts higher.

Full issue · 9 sections · 15 sources, all linked

Read the full issue →