Parallax · earth desk · — 26

Indonesia's fire is burning downward

You have seen the burned-area figure: 286,000 hectares. It misses the part that matters. In October 2015 this fire ate 24.8 centimetres of ground.

Eleven weeks, nearly a season

In 1997 the fires put out just over 800 million tonnes, and the bar rounds down. The dashed line converts Indonesia's fossil emissions for one whole year into carbon. Turned into carbon dioxide, this season's 76 is about 8.7% of India's yearly output.million tonnes of carbon
Indonesia's fossil fuel, one year · 221
1997 800
2015 333
2000-2026 average 85
2026, to 7 September 76 Eleven weeks. Almost a normal full season.

THE SEASON SO FAR

Eleven weeks of burning have nearly matched a normal full season. We usually size a fire by the land it covered.

Burned area reached 286,000 hectares by late August 2026. Depth is measured on the ground, not from orbit.

What most people think

A fire season is as bad as the area it burned.

What the data shows

24.8cm

On peat it is not area that matters. It is depth.

WHAT ACTUALLY BURNED

So depth is the measure nobody collects from orbit. What everyone sees instead is where the smoke goes.

Of the 48,889 hectares burned by then, West Kalimantan carried 28,680. Each pin sits on a provincial capital and stands for a province, not a fire.
MALAYSIA SINGAPORE BRUNEI PHILIPPINES THAILAND West Kalimantan Central Kalimantan South Kalimantan Riau Jambi South Sumatra The haze REACHED SOURCE

WHERE THE SMOKE GOES

Peat is wet ground that burns once it dries. Novita, a peat researcher, explains: "Unlike fires in dry ecosystems, peat fires can smolder underground, so the soil itself becomes readily available fuel."

24.8 centimetres, the average across Indonesia's peatland, is about a school ruler taken off the top of the ground. Canals run 50 to 75 centimetres deep and the column draws the shallow end. The peat below can run past 20 metres.core sample

STRAIGHT DOWN

That sequence runs every dry season. Now set it beside three other carbon flows. Three are converted from carbon dioxide to carbon first, so the widths compare directly. India's band is the widest, and Indonesia's own is a fraction.

Three of the four bands convert carbon dioxide into carbon, multiplying by 12 over 44. India's band is its own fossil emissions on that arithmetic. The 2015 fires alone came to about 38% of India's yearly carbon dioxide.million tonnes of carbon a year
Indonesia's peatfires, 2015 Drained peatquietly rotting Indonesia's carsand power plants India's cars andpower plants The atmosphere 333 million tonnes of carbon a year one bad season 72 million tonnes of carbon a year every year, fire or not 221 million tonnes of carbon a year a whole country's fossil fuel 870 million tonnes of carbon a year India, for scale

THE FOUR PIPES

One bad season put out more carbon than Indonesia burns for power and transport in a year. But a body once existed to put the water back.

October 2015
24.8 cm of ground gone
2016
The peat restoration agency is created
2019
The 40 cm rule arrives
31 December 2024
The agency's mandate expires
The agency ends. The canals stay.
2025
The agency is folded away
2026
The first full season with nobody re-wetting

THE PLUMBING DECISION

That's the short version.

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