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Mission control · No 14

NASA bought the station's ending in 2024

You think cracks and leaks are ending the space station. The date came from a contract NASA signed in 2024, six years early.

Published
21 Sep 2026
Reading time
4 min
Sources
15 cited
Sections
8
In this issue · 8 sections
  1. 01 Last eighteen months
  2. 02 You assume
  3. 03 Dates that matter
  4. 04 So early
  5. 05 Fuel bill
  6. 06 India spent
  7. 07 Gap nobody owns
  8. 08 India will be

Before you start

NASA bought the vehicle that will push the station down. Its delivery date now decides when the station ends. You will see that schedule, drawn before anything wore out.

01 · THE LAST EIGHTEEN MONTHS

How the station comes down

NASA's plan fixes four moments. The deorbit vehicle (the craft that pushes the station down) docks eighteen months before the end. The last crew leaves at six months. Four days before the end, a series of burns begins.

Source · NASA · June 2024

02 · WHAT YOU ASSUME

The station is not worn out

That falling line is a schedule, not a diagnosis. NASA drew every step of it on the ground, years before the first engine fires. The station is old, and it does leak, but nothing on board sets the year it stops.

What most people think

The station is ending because it is falling apart. Cracks and leaks have run it out of life.

What the data shows

NASA picked SpaceX to build the craft that will push the station down. Its delivery date, not its hardware, sets the year.

NASA selected SpaceX in June 2024 to build the US Deorbit Vehicle, a single award worth up to $843 million.

Source · NASA · 26 June 2024

03 · THE DATES THAT MATTER

Six moments, one of them decisive

NASA bought the ending before anything on board gave way. And the 2030 date itself came from an agreement: five space agencies signed up to run the station that long, and Russia, one of the five, through at least 2028.

  1. 2 Nov 2000

    Continuous presence begins. The first three residents move in.

  2. 26 Jun 2024

    NASA buys the deorbit vehicle. SpaceX, single award, up to $843 million.

  3. 17 Jun 2026

    Auditors name the window. GAO: within a year, decide what replaces it.

  4. 2027

    The decision year. Nothing on the station forces this date.

  5. 1 May 2029

    Vehicle delivery required. Contract date. The clock behind everything.

  6. 2030

    Station operations end. Russia's commitment runs through at least 2028.

Both dated decisions, in 2024 and 2026, were made on the ground, years before the station's last day.

Source · GAO-26-107805 · 17 June 2026

04 · WHY SO EARLY

Why the choice lands in 2027

The timeline put a decision in 2027 and an ending in 2030. The gap between them is lead time. Think of booking a wedding hall: the hall needs a long lead time, so its calendar fixes your date.

The burn needs a vehicle. The vehicle must already be docked about eighteen months before the final burn.

The vehicle needs a rocket. It weighs over 30,000 kg, so the heavier rocket is bought at least three years ahead.

So the choice comes first. Count back from 2030, then add certifying a replacement station and buying extra flights: 2027.

Source · NASA and SpaceX · 17 July 2024

05 · THE FUEL BILL

Bringing it down is the cheap option

So lead time picks the year. But why bring the station down at all? Every choice costs fuel, and engineers write that bill as delta-v: the speed change a manoeuvre needs, in metres per second. Bigger number, bigger tank.

Deorbiting costs about 57 m/s of speed change. Holding the orbit for a century costs 120 to 140. Long-term storage costs about 760.

Source · NASA · 2024

06 · WHAT INDIA SPENT

India's answer, priced in rupees

Dropping it in the ocean is the cheapest option, and NASA bought it. Three months later, India's Cabinet answered differently: it expanded Gaganyaan, India's human spaceflight programme, and added the first module of its own station.

India's Cabinet approved the expansion on 18 September 2024, taking Gaganyaan from 9,000 crore rupees to 20,100 crore.

Source · SpaceNews, ISRO · 18 September 2024

07 · THE GAP NOBODY OWNS

What happens if nothing is ready

India is building upward while NASA plans downward, and the two calendars nearly touch, at almost the same height above Earth. The GAO, the US government's auditor, asked NASA to write down how it will judge whether a commercial replacement is ready, including its assumptions and risks. That means the test does not exist yet.

Steve Hoeser, an engineer writing in The Space Review, goes further. He argues NASA has no power written into law to certify a station it does not own, that is, to declare it safe for crew. Think of a driving licence from an office that was never given the power to test anyone, so the licence means nothing.

Source · GAO-26-107805, The Space Review · 17 June 2026

Auditors want a written test for a replacement station. NASA may not even have the legal power to declare one safe for crew.

08 · WHERE INDIA WILL BE

Same band of sky, different decade

So the replacement has no test, and maybe no examiner. The station works between 370 and 460 km. India's first crewed flight is planned for 400 km, inside that band. Same strip of sky, one arriving as the other leaves.

The station flies at about 415 km. India's first crewed mission is planned for 400 km. The station's last crew departs from about 330 km.

Source · ISRO (Nov 2022), NASA, Spaceflight Now · 2022–2024

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Sources

15 cited.

Every number above traces to one of these. Primary sources first.

  1. 01 GAO-26-107805: International Space Station gao.gov U.S. Government Accountability Office · primary
  2. 02 GAO-26-107805 full report gao.gov U.S. Government Accountability Office · primary
  3. 03 NASA Selects International Space Station US Deorbit Vehicle nasa.gov NASA · primary
  4. 04 International Space Station Deorbit Analysis Summary nasa.gov NASA · primary
  5. 05 International Space Station Frequently Asked Questions nasa.gov NASA · primary
  6. 06 FAQs: The International Space Station Transition Plan nasa.gov NASA · primary
  7. 07 Reentry: breakup altitudes orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov NASA Orbital Debris Program Office · primary
  8. 08 IG-22-005: NASA's Management of the ISS and Efforts to Commercialize Low Earth Orbit oig.nasa.gov NASA Office of Inspector General · primary
  9. 09 NASA, SpaceX provide details on space station deorbit vehicle spaceflightnow.com Spaceflight Now · secondary
  10. 10 NASA outlines plans for deorbiting the International Space Station spacenews.com SpaceNews · secondary
  11. 11 India approves space station module, lunar sample return and new rocket development spacenews.com SpaceNews · secondary
  12. 12 How NASA plans to deorbit the International Space Station planetary.org The Planetary Society · analysis
  13. 13 NASA needs to qualify, not certify, commercial space stations thespacereview.com The Space Review · analysis
  14. 14 Axiom-4 Mission: A saga of ~12 million kilometers and ~282 orbits aboard ISS isro.gov.in ISRO · primary
  15. 15 Gaganyaan isro.gov.in ISRO · primary
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