Parallax · space desk · — 27

NASA bought the station's ending in 2024

You think cracks and leaks are ending the space station. The date came from a contract NASA signed in 2024, six years early.

How the station comes down

NASA's plan fixes four moments. The deorbit vehicle (the craft that pushes the station down) docks eighteen months before the end, and the last crew leaves at six months.415→220 km
0112224336448 -18-13.5-9-4.50 ALT km TIME Deorbit vehicle docks Last crew departs Burn series begins Final re-entry burn International Space Station
  • t -18 Deorbit vehicle docks
  • t -6 Last crew departs
  • t -0.1 Burn series begins
  • t 0 Final re-entry burn

THE LAST EIGHTEEN MONTHS

That falling line is a schedule, not a diagnosis. NASA drew every step of it on the ground, years before the first engine fires. The station is old, and it does leak, but nothing on board sets the year it stops.

NASA selected SpaceX in June 2024 to build the US Deorbit Vehicle, a single award worth up to $843 million.

What most people think

The station is ending because it is falling apart. Cracks and leaks have run it out of life.

What the data shows

$843mdeorbit contract, 2024

NASA picked SpaceX to build the craft that will push the station down. Its delivery date, not its hardware, sets the year.

WHAT YOU ASSUME

NASA bought the ending before anything on board gave way. And the 2030 date itself came from an agreement: five space agencies signed up to run the station that long, and Russia, one of the five, through at least 2028.

2 Nov 2000
Continuous presence begins
26 Jun 2024
NASA buys the deorbit vehicle
17 Jun 2026
Auditors name the window
2027
The decision year
Nothing on the station forces this date
1 May 2029
Vehicle delivery required
2030
Station operations end

THE DATES THAT MATTER

So lead time picks the year. But why bring the station down at all? Every choice costs fuel, and engineers write that bill as delta-v: the speed change a manoeuvre needs, in metres per second. Bigger number, bigger tank.

Deorbiting costs about 57 m/s of speed change. Holding the orbit for a century costs 120 to 140, and long-term storage about 760.m/s
Park it for 10,000 years graveyard-grade storage 760
Park it for 100 years 120–140 m/s 120
Deorbit it into the ocean the option NASA bought 57 Saving it costs thirteen times more fuel

THE FUEL BILL

Dropping it in the ocean is the cheapest option, and NASA bought it. Three months later, India's Cabinet answered differently: it expanded Gaganyaan, India's human spaceflight programme, and added the first module of its own station.

India's Cabinet approved the expansion on 18 September 2024, taking Gaganyaan from 9,000 crore rupees to 20,100 crore.

The expanded Gaganyaan programme

20,100crore rupees

In 2025 Shubhanshu Shukla, a Gaganyaan pilot, flew to the station as a rehearsal and ran seven Indian experiments.

  • More than doubled in a single Cabinet decision It was ₹9,000 crore before September 2024.

  • Buys four more missions and the first station module All of it due by December 2028.

WHAT INDIA SPENT

So the replacement has no test, and maybe no examiner. The station works between 370 and 460 km. India's first crewed flight is planned for 400 km, inside that band. Same strip of sky, one arriving as the other leaves.

WHERE INDIA WILL BE

That's the short version.

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